It's a piece of cake, he says. Just take the company's revenue guidance and add 15%
In a 5,000-word essay posted in Bullish Cross Monday, Andy Zaky laid out his method for estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings numbers. He starts with three assumptions:
That most Wall Street analysts and financial writers are completely clueless and couldn't analyze their way out of a paper bag
That the earnings guidance numbers Apple issues each quarter MORE
A blogger-analyst highlights the growing gap between its earnings and its stock price
"In just four-years," writes Andy Zaky in a passionately worded post published Sunday on his Bullish Cross blog, "Apple's earnings have grown 600% to $27.68, and its revenue skyrocketed 341% to $108.2 billion. That's the most explosive 4-year growth rate of any large-cap company on the entire S&P 500."
Yet Apple's (AAPL) shares closed last week at $363.57 with a MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 28, 2011 7:15 AM ET
Walter Isaacson and Steve Wozniak to deliver the keynotes
I've been invited to speak at an Apple Investor Summit being held in Los Angeles next March.
It's shaping up to be an interesting event. Steve Jobs biographer Walter Isaacson and Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Wozniak will deliver the keynotes, and the featured speakers include several of our regular commenters, among them Horace Dediu, Andy Zaky, Travis Lewis and Robert Paul Leitao.
The organizers MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 2, 2011 6:49 PM ET
In the past, shares rose on the rumor and fell on the news. Not this time.
Wondering what's going on with Apple's (AAPL) share price with a big iPhone announcement just around corner?
Andy Zaky has been tracking the trading patterns before and after Apple's special events on his Bullish Cross blog (now behind a paywall) for several years. He offers these observations (I quote):
With the exception of the iPhone 1, Apple has MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 30, 2011 10:55 AM ET
A report out of Apple's Asian supply chain may have sent the wrong signal to Wall Street
Apple (AAPL) shares fell sharply in early trading Monday following a widely reported note to clients from J.P. Morgan's Gokul Hariharan to the effect that multiple supply chain vendors in Asia have registered a 25% cut in fourth-quarter iPad 2 orders from Apple -- "the first cut ever we've seen" according to Hariharan. (Business MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 26, 2011 11:30 AM ET
On June 17, he told readers to buy AAPL at $320. The stock took off two days later.
We gave Andy Zaky, an independent analyst with a enviable track record, a hard time a few weeks ago.
He had just published a report on his Bullish Cross blog (reposted on Seeking Alpha) advising investors to buy Apple (AAPL) at $320. Although his three previous Apple buy signals had proved prescient, we took MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 8, 2011 7:06 AM ET
There's a seasonality to the company's share price. So beware those January 2012 calls.
With the usual caveat that past performance is no guarantee of anything, two recent reports have uncovered interesting patterns in Apple's (AAPL) share price.
Two weeks ago on Seeking Alpha, Jason Schwarz documented a weekly cycle of Monday lows and Thursday highs. Over the past 32 weeks, he reports, Apple's share price has fallen from Friday to Monday MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 27, 2011 12:09 PM ET
If you ask about sales in the quarter that just ended, you get three very different answers
Apple's (AAPL) third fiscal quarter of 2011 ended Saturday at midnight. How did it go? That depends whom you ask.
In April, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer told analysts he expected Apple to earn $5.03 per share on sales of $23 billion. But given how Apple tends to low-ball its forward-looking guidance, nobody really believed him.
The MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 26, 2011 11:34 AM ET
Not that it has done any good. Shares fell 1.5% that day and opened 0.9% lower on Monday
We've been following Andy Zaky's posts on Bullish Cross since 2007 and have found, as he likes to remind readers, that he's one of the best independent analysts following Apple (AAPL). His estimates of Apple's quarterly earnings are uncannily accurate. In the years we've been tracking them, they've never failed to beat those MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 20, 2011 10:46 AM ET
The stock is up 330% since its 2008 low, but that's really nothing to write home about
In an article posted Friday on Seeking Alpha, Fortune.com contributor Andy Zaky takes aim at a phrase that has attached itself to Apple (AAPL) recently: "the darling of Wall Street." (Google it; you'll be surprised how often it pops up in the financial press.)
Apple is a darling, the thinking goes, because the stock has MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 13, 2011 7:40 AM ET
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