Andy Zaky
Losses of Apple guru's clients could reach into the billions
March 6, 2013: 8:14 AM ETThe toll from Andy Zaky's Bullish Cross investment groups continues to mount
FORTUNE -- On Monday Fortune.com published The rise and fall of Andy Zaky -- the tale of an Internet-trained investment advisor who led hundreds of followers over their own personal financial cliffs last fall when Apple's (AAPL) stock price collapsed. Over the next two days, many former members of his Bullish Cross investment groups wrote to say that my estimate of their losses was off by at least a factor of 10 and perhaps more.
On further investigation, I think they may be right.
Forms filed with the SEC show that investors in Bullish Cross Capital L.P. -- Zaky's failed Apple hedge fund -- had put up at least $10.6 million and lost it all.
What I could only guess at were the losses suffered by the hundreds of subscribers to his Bullish Cross financial newsletter who -- on his advice -- had put their money into high-risk Apple options.
What I can say now is that I've heard directly from 39 former Bullish Cross members who tell me that they lost anywhere from $15,000 to $50 million apiece.
- Total losses for these 39 investors: $97.3 million
- Average loss: $2.5 million
Given that at its peak, Bullish Cross had 700 members, it's quite likely that Andy Zaky's followers -- many of whom had put their savings and retirement accounts into Apple call spreads -- lost hundreds of millions of dollars. If the members I haven't heard from were large investors, total losses could reach into the billions.
One final, disturbing thought: Zaky was hardly the only Apple investment guru encouraging retail clients to buy bullish Apple options just as some of the largest funds on Wall Street were pulling their money out of the underlying stock.
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The rise and fall of Andy Zaky
How an Internet-trained Apple analyst lost tens of millions of other peoples' money
FORTUNE -- In the late 1990s, an ad agency creative director I'll call Joe Smith to protect his privacy bought several hundred shares of Apple (AAPL) at $60 apiece. Last fall, at age 42, he found himself out of work and increasingly dependent on the value of those shares to make ends meet.
Following the lead of a 33-year-old MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 4, 2013 1:07 PM ET -
Just for the record, Apple bounced on Monday
Andy Zaky has called a bottom for the fifth time in a row
FORTUNE: Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky, never shy about tooting his own horn, has asked me to remind readers that on Thursday, with Apple (AAPL) trading just over $530, he announced that the share price was at or near a bottom and was about to bounce.
"Those who have been waiting for a correction in Apple to buy the stock," MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 21, 2012 6:19 PM ET -
Andy Zaky: Apple has hit bottom and is about to bounce
A cult figure among day traders issues a rare "buy" recommendation
FORTUNE -- With Apple (AAPL) trading just over $530 a share -- under 13 times last year's earnings and 10.56 times his estimated October earnings -- Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky on Thursday told his readers to buy:
"Those who have been waiting for a correction in Apple to buy the stock now have that opportunity to do so. On a technical MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 18, 2012 7:25 AM ET -
How Apple gets to $2,000
Andy Zaky has a plan
FORTUNE -- Most Apple (AAPL) analysts will offer estimates that look a few quarters or even a year in advance.
Andy Zaky is not like most analysts.
For one thing, his estimates over the past four years have been considerably more accurate than your average Wall Street analyst (see, for example, here).
For another, he's not afraid to stick his neck out -- way out -- both in his MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 9, 2012 6:50 AM ET -
How low can Apple go?
There are, in fact, limits to how far the stock can fall
FORTUNE -- Watching Apple's (AAPL) share price see-saw over the past three weeks -- up to $644, down to $555, up to $618, down to $581 -- investors might well wonder whether there's any limit to how high or, more to the point these days, how low the stock can go.
To set some guidelines, we asked Bullish Cross' Andy MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 3, 2012 5:45 AM ETPosted in: Amazon, Andy Zaky, Apple, Bullish Cross, iPhone, P/E ratio, Quarterly earnings, Share price -
How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter?
The estimates range from 26 to 44 million. The best analysts' consensus: 35 million.
The most important metric for Apple (AAPL) in the quarter that ended two weeks ago -- likely to account for more than half of the company's revenue for fiscal Q2 2012 -- is the number of iPhones it sold from Jan. 1 to Mar. 31.
We've polled 48 analysts -- evenly divided between professional and independent -- and the indies, MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 16, 2012 5:00 AM ET -
Who first called Apple at $500?
Technically, it was Hudson Square's Daniel Ernst. But we have a few caveats.
Eyebrows were raised in October 2010 when Daniel Ernst hiked his 12-month Apple (AAPL) price target from $300 a share to $500. But perhaps drawing attention to himself was the point. The senior analyst at Hudson Square Research is now a regular contributor on CNBC and his current price target -- $700 -- is once again the Street's MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 11, 2012 6:15 AM ET -
Apple's $90 billion run
The company has gained nearly one Facebook in value since Steve Jobs died
On Oct. 4, the day before Steve Jobs passed away, Apple (AAPL) shares closed at $372.50 and its market cap stood at $347 billion.
Four months later, the stock is up nearly $100 and its market cap is $437 billion. To put that $90 billion gain in perspective, it's nine tenths the value analysts have placed on Facebook in MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 8, 2012 7:09 AM ETPosted in: Andy Zaky, Apple, Bullish Cross, Facebook, Jason Schwarz, Market capitalization, Steve Jobs -
Apple analysis for idiots: An Andy Zaky tutorial
It's a piece of cake, he says. Just take the company's revenue guidance and add 15%
In a 5,000-word essay posted in Bullish Cross Monday, Andy Zaky laid out his method for estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings numbers. He starts with three assumptions:
That most Wall Street analysts and financial writers are completely clueless and couldn't analyze their way out of a paper bag
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 12, 2011 4:18 PM ET
That the earnings guidance numbers Apple issues each quarter MOREPosted in: Andy Zaky, Apple, Bullish Cross, Gross margin, iPad, iPhone, iPod, Mobile, PCs, Quarterly earnings, Tablets, Wall Street
