Andy Hargreaves
Another Apple analyst backs away from iTV's inevitability
May 14, 2012: 1:27 PM ETPouring cold water on one of Silicon Valley's hottest rumors
FORTUNE -- Although there is no shortage of iTV speculation -- thanks to rumor sites like Taipei-based DigiTimes -- and plenty of Apple (AAPL) analysts ready to calculate to the penny how much an Apple-branded TV set would add to the company's bottom line, some experts have started to back away from what was once seen as an inevitablity.
In December, Richard Gardner, formerly of Citigroup, warned that "Apple has not even defined specs yet." In February, Barclays' Ben Reitzes suggested that Apple was focused more on lining up TV content partnerships than on the production of a TV set.
Now Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves has poured what may be the coldest water yet on the idea. In a note to clients issued Monday, he makes two points: (I quote)
- Investment in Apple television makes little sense without a unique TV content offering. An Apple television could drive substantial profitability if it helped Apple capture service provider profits. However, we do not expect U.S. broadcast or cable networks to provide Apple content if it risks cannibalizing existing revenue, which makes a unique Apple service and an Apple television unlikely.
- An Apple television would be a terrible use of retail space relative to iPhone, iPad or the Apple TV set-top box. A 46" Apple television would likely generate less than 1/200th the gross profit per cubic foot as an iPhone at retail, and less than 1/50th the gross profit per cubic foot of an iPad. We believe this is critical given the limited inventory space at many Apple and partner stores.
As it happens, I agree with Hargreaves (see here), although he goes on to say that Apple is more likely to be building an iPad mini. That one I'll believe when I see it.
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Apple Q2: Misses high and low, but the best bloggers nailed it
Independent analysts take the top 8 spots in our quarterly earnings smackdown
FORTUNE -- Neither side scored a clear victory this time around. The professional analysts as a group were far too cautious. And our expanded cadre of independents showed signs of irrational exuberance.
But the list at right, which ranks 57 Apple (AAPL) analysts by the accuracy of their fiscal Q2 2012 revenue and earnings estimates, shows that the independents have MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 25, 2012 7:12 AM ET -
How many Macs did Apple sell last quarter?
Estimates from the analysts we polled range from 3.34 million to 3.87 million
Apple's (AAPL) computer line celebrated a unusually merry Christmas in its first fiscal quarter of 2011, selling more than 4 million Macs for the first time it its history.
In what was a difficult quarter for the rest of the PC industry, Mac unit sales were up 23% year over year.
None of the 43 analysts we polled -- MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 9, 2011 11:56 AM ET
