Some Apple analysts got burned on the way up, others on the way down.
FORTUNE -- Doesn't your heart go out to the Wall Street analysts who have to try to predict the future movement of Apple's (AAPL) shares?
Anybody who set a price target below $300 last year looked pretty stupid when the stock topped $700 in September. On the other hand, the guy with the $1,111 target had some explaining MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 12, 2013 9:59 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 13 million to 21.7 million. The median is 18 million.
FORTUNE -- Credit where credit is due: The consensus among the professional Apple (AAPL) analysts we polled in January was that the company sold about 22.8 million iPads in the Christmas quarter. The company actually sold 22.86 million -- pretty darn close.
(About the independent analysts, whose estimates averaged 25.5 million and ranged as high as 32 MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 10, 2013 11:29 AM ET
The forecasts range from 32.5 million to 42.5 million. Median estimate: 37 million.
FORTUNE -- iPhone sales were the big surprise this time last year.
Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) had just turned in disappointing activation numbers and the talking heads on CNBC were predicting that Apple (AAPL) would totally miss its revenue and earnings targets -- forgetting, apparently, that most iPhone sales take place overseas.
When Apple reported last April that it MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 7, 2013 5:46 AM ET
Great for Facebook power users. Provocative toward Google. No help for Apple.
FORTUNE -- Having watched Mark Zuckerberg introduce the new Home interface for Android phones, Wall Street analysts wresting with the implications for Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) drew on every literary, musical and film reference they could think of, including The Wizard of Oz ("There's no place like home"), ET ("Phone home"), Simon and Garfunkel ("Homeward Bound") MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 5, 2013 11:10 AM ET
Are all Apple analysts really "nothing more than glorified financial reporters"?
FORTUNE --Because he uses my data to make his point, I feel obliged to respond to AppleInvestor's Ernie Varitimos, who begins a piece posted Thursday with the observation that "there are few people on the planet that can destroy wealth faster than an Apple analyst."
While it's true, as he suggests, that a single ill-timed note by an analyst can wipe out billions MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 28, 2013 11:47 AM ET
After the big build-up and over-the-top stage show, there were few surprises
FORTUNE -- Evolutionary, not revolutionary, was the general consensus. As for what Samsung's new phone means for Apple (AAPL), the jury was split.
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Galaxy S4 Evolutionary, iPhone To Essentially Maintain High End Share In CY13. "The Galaxy S4 appears to be largely an incremental update to the S3 including a slightly larger screen (4% larger on diagonal), better MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 15, 2013 10:34 AM ET
Wall Street makes a comeback
FORTUNE -- As long-time readers of this blog know, we've been running for more than four years a friendly competition we call the Apple Earnings Smackdown.
Here's how it works: Each quarter, in advance of Apple's (AAPL) earnings report, we gather estimates from every analyst we can reach -- both Wall Street professionals and a collection of (mostly amateur) independents.
What made the exercise particularly interesting -- at MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 17, 2013 11:21 AM ET
How could so many analysts have been so wrong about Apple's share price?
FORTUNE -- I agree with almost everything James Stewart writes in his Saturday New York Times opinion piece "Following a herd of bulls on Apple."
He's right when he points out that the overwhelming majority of Apple (AAPL) analysts who were saying "buy" in September when Apple peaked at $705 were still saying "buy" in November, when it touched $505.
He's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 9, 2013 6:53 AM ET
Lazy, according to a study of firms, like Apple, with periodic 14-week quarters
FORTUNE -- One of the mysteries that lingers from Apple's (AAPL) most recent quarterly report -- when the company failed to meet Wall Street's expectations and its stock suffered its worst one-day loss in four years -- was whether the analysts who set those expectations were aware that the quarter was one week shorter than the same quarter MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 2, 2013 3:14 PM ET
That's down from $740 a month ago
FORTUNE -- Wall Street engaged in a wholesale reevaluation of Apple's (AAPL) medium-term prospects last week following the company's Q1 2013 earnings report and Q2 guidance. Of the 36 analysts we polled, 33 lowered their price targets.
The new range, dropping any analyst who didn't respond, still covers a lot of ground. It travels all the way from $380 (submitted by Creative Global's Carlo Besenius, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 29, 2013 5:55 AM ET
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