FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty unveiled a new crowdsourced forecasting tool Tuesday. As explained in an April whitepaper, the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker is based on an analysis of Google Trends, using different search terms for different regions and adjusting for seasonal trends.
The results of the first month's survey of the U.S., U.K., German, French, Japanese and Chinese markets are shown in the chart above.
As Huberty notes, 31 million iPhones is better than the Street's consensus (she's at 27 million units), but is consistent with what she's hearing from Apple's (AAPL) Asian suppliers.
AlphaWise's 45 million Galaxy forecast, according to Huberty, is roughly in line with expectations (46 million). "Samsung Galaxy searches grew Q/Q in most regions with the largest growth in China and U.S.," she writes. "Demand upside for lower priced Galaxy S3 likely offsets slightly weaker than expected demand for Galaxy S4, in our view."
A proprietary survey finds demand for iPads and iPhones much stronger than expected
The results of an AlphaWise survey of U.S. consumers conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving was full of surprises, reports Katy Huberty in a note to clients issued late Wednesday.
iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 15, 2011 6:53 AM ET
Nokia may be most vulnerable as Chinese cellphone owners upgrade to smartphones
There's good news for Apple (AAPL) in the results of an Alphawise/Morgan Stanley survey released Tuesday.
The survey, conducted among a sample of 2,029 Chinese mobile phone users in February and March, found demand for smartphones to be surprisingly strong. 88% of respondents said they expected the next phone they bought would be a smartphone. And 30% of those who MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 29, 2011 2:22 PM ET
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