FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) had only just begun taking iPhone 5C pre-orders Sunday when Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker closed the books on Q3 2013, but the survey had already registered a bump in buyer interest in the company's line of smartphones.
According to a note to clients posted early Wednesday by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, the survey's data suggest sales of 34.5 million iPhones in calendar Q3 (Apple's fiscal Q4).
That's 11% better than the consensus forecast of 31 million, and 28% higher than the 26.9 million Apple sold in the same quarter last year.
But it's not better than AlphaWise's estimate of Samsung Galaxy sales. Those are forecast at 47 million, 2 million (4.4%) better than the Street's consensus.
See chart below.
Huberty on methodology: "Our tracker includes Web search data through Sept 15, which incorporates the iPhone announcement on Sept 10 and the start of pre-orders on Sept 13. Our tracker includes the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, China and Japan, which are all countries launching the new iPhones this week. Our model projects demand for the rest of September assuming demand trends post last week's announcement follow a similar pattern as 2012."
AlphaWise survey finds Chinese willing to pay up to RMB 4,000 ($486) for the Apple brand.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has some good news for Apple (AAPL) and bad news for everybody else trying to sell smartphones in China.
On Monday, the same day the Wall Street Journal put its imprimatur on rumors that have been floating around for weeks -- namely, that Apple is set to launch a pair MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 20, 2013 4:37 AM ET
Google Trends says Apple beats low expectations, Samsung momentum stays strong.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty unveiled a new crowdsourced forecasting tool Tuesday. As explained in an April whitepaper, the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker is based on an analysis of Google Trends, using different search terms for different regions and adjusting for seasonal trends.
The results of the first month's survey of the U.S., U.K., German, French, Japanese and Chinese markets are shown in the chart above.
As MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 22, 2013 7:09 PM ET
A proprietary survey finds demand for iPads and iPhones much stronger than expected
The results of an AlphaWise survey of U.S. consumers conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving was full of surprises, reports Katy Huberty in a note to clients issued late Wednesday.
iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 15, 2011 6:53 AM ET
Nokia may be most vulnerable as Chinese cellphone owners upgrade to smartphones
There's good news for Apple (AAPL) in the results of an Alphawise/Morgan Stanley survey released Tuesday.
The survey, conducted among a sample of 2,029 Chinese mobile phone users in February and March, found demand for smartphones to be surprisingly strong. 88% of respondents said they expected the next phone they bought would be a smartphone. And 30% of those who MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 29, 2011 2:22 PM ET
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