By Kevin Kelleher, contributor
FORTUNE -- If a company stays on the auction block long enough, rumors about its fate will eventually begin to repeat themselves. In 2008, while Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang insisted the web giant wasn't for sale, Microsoft emerged as a suitor. Then Google got involved.
Fast forward to 2011 and here's Jerry Yang again downplaying reports of a Yahoo (YHOO) acquisition. Among the suitors is, again, Microsoft (MSFT), only this time it's reportedly bankrolling a deal by joint buyers. And as the day follows the dawn, reports followed quickly that Google (GOOG) is also interested in financing private investors looking to buy Yahoo.
There are plenty of reasons a Google-backed deal would not pan out. First, the Wall Street Journal story reporting the possibility was based on a single source -- that elusive "person familiar with the matter" -- who said that "Google may end up not pursuing a bid." Then there are the antitrust concerns: the Department of Justice shot down the 2008 search partnership Google wanted to arrange with Yahoo. The government would surely take a close look at any moves backed by Google. And then there are the strategic reasons -- or lack of them. Much of Google's future is focused on social and mobile -- and Yahoo is weaker in both.
Still, that doesn't mean there's no virtue for Google in saving Yahoo. Here are six possible scenarios in which it might actually be a good idea:
Google is throwing sand in the gears of another deal. The most cited theory is that Google wants to drive up the price for Microsoft or another bidder. A simple phone call by someone familiar with the matter to a reporter is all it would take. Yahoo's stock rose 4% Monday following the report. The risk in this move is that this slight rise in Yahoo's share price won't last long. In other words, this report would at best delay a Microsoft-backed deal. Much more likely is that Google would try to get into the Yahoo-takeover mix to give Microsoft second thoughts -- or even drive it away if it's on the fence. It could also deter smaller third parties from pursuing their own bid at all.
Google wants a bigger presence in display ads. Revenue from display ads are disappointing at Yahoo but they're growing at Google, which is making $2.5 billion a year from them. Yahoo, however, has deep relationships with the web's biggest advertisers as well as many popular sites. If putting Google's money into Yahoo could open up access to Yahoo's display customers, Google could see more display growth. Such a move would surely set off antitrust alarms.
Yahoo could bring more users to Google+. For most people, Facebook is still the go-to place to socialize with friends online. Google+ has signed up 40 million users in a few months, but that's only 5% of Facebook's 800 million active users. What Google needs is access to more active accounts -- and Yahoo still has a lot of them. Yahoo, meanwhile, is even further behind Google when it comes to having a social-networking infrastructure. Since social networks rely on big numbers of users, corralling Yahoo members into Google+ would help Google build a strong rival to Facebook.
Google wants a closer look at Yahoo. When investors enter serious takeover talks with a company, they often demand a look at its financials and performance metrics. By backing some private equity investors who might otherwise have trouble raising money, Google can have access to all that data, even if the talks eventually fall through. There may not be much of Yahoo's data that is crucial for Google to know, but there's plenty that could be helpful: How is Yahoo's search partnership with Microsoft really faring? Where is Yahoo's display business strong, and where is it weak? What insights does Yahoo have in international markets, particularly Asia? What's more, if Microsoft is involved in a takeover bid, it may have access to this same data. So why shouldn't Google have access too?
Yahoo offers Google a backdoor to China. Google's history in China is a rocky one, culminating in the company's decision to shut down its China operations last year. But one of Yahoo's strengths is its assets in China, including its 40% stake in Alibaba.
The truly speculative will consider this: If Google owned a stake in Yahoo, it would indirectly own a stake in Alibaba, one of China's Internet giants. That could offer a way back into a growing market. It could also derail any chance that Alibaba would buy Yahoo. If Jack Ma controlled Yahoo, he could undercut Google on everything from online payment fees to search and display ad rates. Far-fetched? Sure, but coincidentally or not, Google said Monday that China renewed its operating license in the country. And the former head of Google China said on Quora that Alibaba and Ma aren't suited to manage Yahoo. It's hard not to read that and think, "but Google is."
Investing in Yahoo will keep antitrust regulators off Google's back. Google may be interested in helping Yahoo to thrive to lessen its chance of becoming a search monopoly. Without Yahoo around, Google could become so powerful in search and display ads that antitrust regulators end up doing more harm than a revitalized Yahoo ever could.
There is a precedent for such a move. In 1997, Microsoft invested $150 million in a struggling Apple (AAPL). Ostensibly, the investment was to encourage Apple to install Office and Internet Explorer onto Mac computers, but it also served to keep antitrust regulators at bay. (A side note: Microsoft later sold off its Apple shares, which would be worth several billion dollars today).
Yahoo's future is unpredictable, so much so it seems like any outcome is possible at this point: A merger with AOL (AOL), a takeover by Jack Ma, a buyout by private equity firms financed in part by Microsoft, or Google, or someone else. But one thing that is growing less likely is the scenario that Jerry Yang wants -- an independent Yahoo.
The tech giant unveiled a slew of new search features, including the ability to search by images and input queries by voice on desktop computers.
FORTUNE -- Google (GOOG) makes a lot of waves with products like Android and Gmail, but its bread and butter is still search. On Tuesday, the company unveiled a slew of new search features, including the ability to search by images and input queries by voice MORE
Michal Lev-Ram, writer - Jun 14, 2011 6:11 PM ET
Google new NFC-enabled services, Wallet and Offers, are ambitious, but getting all of the pieces to work together will be difficult.
FORTUNE -- At yesterday's Google Wallet/Offers launch event in New York, Google (GOOG) laid out a very compelling case for using NFC-enabled Android phones to make payments at physical merchants. The company trotted out launch partners including the Container Store, Subway, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Walgreens (WAG). On the backend, Google MORE
Seth Weintraub - May 27, 2011 4:16 PM ET
Cell phone hardware innovators are gathering at Google. That could mean big changes for Android.
Joe Britt at Google I/O
FORTUNE -- Matt Hershenson and Joe Britt, two legendary figures in mobile phone development, have suddenly resurfaced as part of the team building Android. Their hiring signals a big change at Google, showing that the company is getting just as serious about the hardware of phones — and this goes well MORE
Seth Weintraub - May 11, 2011 3:31 PM ET
There's no going back.
Top: My old Sidekick 3 circa 2007. Bottom: T-Moblie Sidekick 4G from Samsung
I'm sure somewhere deep inside of Google (GOOG) headquarters, Android head Andy Rubin has been checking out the new Sidekick 4G by Samsung. Rubin, of course, headed the Danger outfit that designed the original Sidekick before they were purchased and destroyed by Microsoft in 2005. Today, after ridding itself of Microsoft's Sidekick, T-Mobile is MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 21, 2011 12:45 PM ET
The form factor isn't the only factor.
G-Slate with great browser on 8.9 inch screen
I've been playing with T-Mobile/LG's 8.9 inch Android 3.0 tablet for the better part of a week and I think it is an interesting piece of hardware. This is the first time I've played with Honeycomb, Google's (GOOG) tablet OS, extensively so it took a bit of getting used to.
There are plenty of things wrong with MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 19, 2011 6:27 PM ET
Employees.
Google (GOOG) stock took a huge hit last week following its earnings call, dropping and incredible 47 points or 8.26% from closing the day before. That's $15B in market cap and its biggest one day loss since the 2008 Bear market.
Google surpassed revenue expectations by a significant margin and missed consensus EPS by mere pennies, so why did the stock get hit so badly?
Cowan's Jim Friedland notes,
Google's Q1:11 revenues exceeded expectations. However, MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 18, 2011 7:03 AM ET
Drivers Ed for Copyright violations.
In a move to thwart copyright violations on its YouTube Subsidiary, Google (GOOG) has instituted a new Copyright Violations Schooling program along with new policies for users who are found to have violated YouTube's copyright rules.
It is probably exactly what you expect: When YouTube gets a report of a copyright violation, the video is removed and the uploader has to watch the "school" video below, which goes into detail MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 14, 2011 5:53 PM ET
Larry Page's first as Google (GOOG) CEO. We're on hand live.
Investors not liking the lowered earnings
Revenues of $8.58 billion a 27% increase over first quarter 2010 revenues of $6.77 billion. Paid Clicks Up 18%; Cost Per Click Up 8%:
4:35PM: Larry Page dropped in to say everything is going as planned, specifically the Executive switchover. Also thanks Jonathan Rosenberg who is usually on these calls but announced his resignation last week..
4:40: CFO MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 14, 2011 3:09 PM ET
After offering Google Voice, the carrier now will let you make Market purchases against your monthly bill.
Joining AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (ahem), Sprint (S) will now allow Android users to buy Android Market items and have them charged to their monthly Sprint bill. This theoretically simplifies purchasing and removes the barrier to entry for paid Apps for some Android users. Google remarked:
We believe that Direct Carrier Billing is a key MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 13, 2011 4:00 PM ETEvery morning, discover the companies, deals and trends in tech that are moving markets and making headlines. SUBSCRIBE
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| Company | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America Corp... | 8.07 | -0.11 | -1.34% |
| Cisco Systems Inc | 19.90 | -0.10 | -0.52% |
| Ford Motor Co | 12.44 | -0.25 | -1.97% |
| General Electric Co | 18.88 | -0.26 | -1.33% |
| Microsoft Corp | 30.50 | -0.16 | -0.54% |
| Index | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 12,801.23 | -89.23 | -0.69% |
| Nasdaq | 2,903.88 | -23.35 | -0.80% |
| S&P 500 | 1,342.64 | -9.31 | -0.69% |
| Treasuries | 1.97 | -0.08 | -3.81% |
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