Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Spreadsheet of the day: Final estimates for Apple's fiscal Q1 2014

January 26, 2014: 2:19 PM ET

The consensus forecast of 47 analysts: Earnings of $14.36 per share on sales of $58 billion.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE -- The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in, and you could look at the findings -- depending on how full or empty your Apple glass happens to be -- as a shift to sustainable growth, a pause before the next big thing, or the end of a high-flying era.

The consensus estimates among the 47 Apple analysts we've heard from so far -- 29 Wall Street professionals and 18 Internet amateurs -- are for earnings of $14.36 per share on sales of $58.1 billion. That represents year-over-year growth of 4.0% for earnings and 6.6% for revenue. (See Handicapping Apple's quarterly earnings and revenue.)

It's not the 50%-plus earning growth Apple turned in for nine consecutive quarters between 2010 and 2012. But it's better than "negative earnings growth." That's what Apple has now reported for three quarters in a row.

I still have a few analysts on record -- six pros and one indie -- predicting that Apple on Monday will turn yet another quarter of negative growth. But five of those estimates are pretty moldy, having been filed three months ago. Analysts who have dusted off their spreadsheets more recently tend to be more bullish. (See Two big banks upped their Apple numbers last week.)

And although 80% of the pros' estimates fall between Apple's $55 million and $58 million -- Apple's high and low guidance numbers -- six are sitting up there in the bleachers above $58 million, where most of the amateurs hang out.

The high revenue estimate, $60.93 billion, comes from independent Nicolae Mihalache, who overshot last year's top and bottom lines by 20% and nearly 16%, respectively. The low estimate, if you don't count's Apple's own low-end guidance, comes from Societe Generale's Andy Perkins at $55.8 billion. He didn't do much better in Q1 2013 than Mihalache. (See Apple burned by analysts' overheated expectations.)

We'll find out who was nearest the mark in each category this year when Apple reports its earnings after the markets close on Monday.

Below: The individual analyst's Q1 2014 estimates, with the pros in blue, the indies in green (plus Apple's high and low guidance numbers in red). I'll run my quarterly Earnings Smackdown after Monday's earnings call and plan to post the quarter's list of the best and worst analysts Tuesday morning.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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