Android v. Apple: The race to U.S. smartphone saturationDecember 10, 2013: 1:37 PM ET
Asymco's Horace Dediu now expects U.S. smartphone penetration to hit 90% by Dec. 2016.
But even I can see that the curves representing various smartphone platforms have different shapes:
- Orange: Research in Motion (BBRY), headed south
- Blue: Microsoft (MSFT), recovering
- Yellow: Android (GOOG), leveling off
- Red: Apple (AAPL), the only platform still tracking the overall smartphone market's breakneck growth
This chart was derived from the one copied below, part of an exercise in which Dediu estimates from time to time the point at which smartphones in the U.S. -- a leading indicator of global smartphone use -- reach 90% saturation.
His current estimate: December 2016, three years from now. By then, 230 million Americans could be carrying smartphones.
On the road to smartphone saturation, according to Dediu, that puts the U.S. in the "late majority" stage. See below: