Apple 2.0

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Spreadsheet of the day: Final estimates for Apple's Q4 2013

October 27, 2013: 6:00 AM ET

The forecasts of 48 Apple analysts -- 27 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents

Screen Shot 2013-10-27 at 6.53.12 AMFORTUNE - The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in, and the results are mixed -- in more ways than one.

The consensus among the 48 analysts we've heard from -- 27 pros and 21 amateurs --  is that revenues were up (about 3%) in fiscal Q4 and earnings down (about 6%) year over year.

The spread between the amateurs and pros was also mixed. The amateurs are more bullish on the top and bottom lines (revenue and earnings per share) -- thanks mostly to their iPhone and gross margin estimates. But the pros -- usually more cautious -- are more bullish on the iPad, the iPod, the Mac and iTunes.

As it happens, both the high and low revenue estimates came from Wall Street:

Top: FBN's Shelby Seyrafi: $39.18 billion (up 9% year over year)
Bottom: Cantor Fitzgerald's Brian White: $34.57 billion (down 4%)

We'll find out who was nearest the mark in each category when Apple reports its earnings after the markets close on Monday.

UPDATE, inspired by the discussion below: Analysts focus on Apple's Q1 2014 guidance.

Below: The individual analyst's Q4 estimates, with the pros in blue, the indies in green (plus Apple's high and low guidance numbers in red). I'll run my quarterly Earnings Smackdown after Monday's earnings call and plan to post the quarter's list of the best and worst analysts Tuesday morning.

Smackdown updated

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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