Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Chart of the day: What new iPhones do to Apple's shares

September 9, 2013: 6:50 AM ET

Four times out of six, investors have sold the rumor and bought the news.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE -- What's Apple's (AAPL) share price going to do over the next 12 months if, as widely expected, the company unveils a pair of new iPhones on Tuesday?

Conventional wisdom says that Apple traders buy the rumor and sell the news, but the series of stock charts Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore shared with clients Monday suggest the opposite.

As the graph above shows, Apple's share price rose following every iPhone release but two:

  • The iPhone 3G, launched a couple months before the U.S. entered its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression
  • The iPhone 5, launched the same day Apple's share price hit an all-time high of $705.07 and began a nine-month free fall

The past, of course, is no guarantee of future results.

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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