Apple 2.0

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Spreadsheet of the day: Final estimates for Apple's Q3 2013

July 22, 2013: 6:31 AM ET

The forecasts of 59 Apple analysts -- 38 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE -- The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in. The professionals are, as usual, more cautious than the amateurs -- but not consistently so (see iPods, Macs and iTunes).

Nobody, however, is expecting a blow-out quarter. Earnings estimates are down across the board -- anywhere from -7% year over year  (according to independent Patrick Smellie from the Braeburn Group) to -29% (Susquehanna's Chris Caso).

Most agree that revenues will be flat or down slightly, although there's still a $5.5 billion gap between Caso's $32.8 billion and the $38.3 billion submitted by the Braeburn Group's Ilari Scheinin.

In general, the convergence we saw developing in Q2 has started to reverse. In April, the gap between the pros' and the amateurs' revenue estimates was just 1.3%.

Now they seem to be drifting apart again. The revenue gap for Q3 has more than doubled, to 3.5%. On earnings, the two groups are, on average, 7.1% apart.

We'll find out who was closest to the mark in each category when Apple reports its fiscal Q3 2013 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday.

Below: The individual analyst's estimates, with the pros in blue, the indies in green and Apple's high and low guidance numbers in red. I'll run my quarterly Earnings Smackdown after Tuesday's earnings call and post the quarter's list of the best and worst analysts on Wednesday morning.

Q3 2013 9 45 revise

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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