Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

What Apple analysts are saying ahead of next week's earnings report

July 17, 2013: 2:51 AM ET

Fine tuning estimates for what most analysts view as a transitional quarter for Apple.

chart_ws_stock_appleinc_201371723950_240xaFORTUNE -- We've started to get some last-minute revisions -- positive and negative -- in advance of Apple's (AAPL) fiscal Q3 earnings report, due out next Tuesday after the markets close.

Here are excerpts from a few early notes. More as they come in.

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: iPhone Drives Jun Q Upside; Expect Conservative Guide. "We're positively biased into [fiscal Q3] earnings as we expect Apple to beat consensus estimates on the back of strong demand for discounted iPhones. We expect [fiscal Q4] guidance below consensus given historical conservatism ahead of new product cycles... Potential June Q beat, accelerating new iPhone builds, and broad investor expectations for conservative guidance make us positively biased into earnings but shares are unlikely to re-rate before new carrier distribution, new services, or new products are announced with the next catalyst the late September iPhone launch. Rating: Overweight. Price target: $540. 

Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley: Lowering estimates due to slower high-end smartphone sales growth trends. "Our June global handset surveys indicated the iPhone 5 remained a top-selling smartphone at essentially all global carriers. Further, we were impressed with new iOS 7 features introduced at WWDC and anticipate new iPhone product launches in H2/C2013. However, our global handset surveys indicated the iPhone has lost sell-through market share post the launch of the Samsung Galaxy S4. Further, with Samsung reporting high-tier smartphone sales below market expectations and already reducing prices of the Galaxy S4, our survey work indicates softening demand for high-tier smartphones. Given this and the uncertain timing for the launch of an iPhone 5S and mid-tier iPhone, we are lowering our H2/C2013 iPhone estimates." Buy. Price target lowered to $530 from $560.

Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: Gearing up for a product rich 2H13. "Near term results are unlikely to illustrate any major turnaround and a transitional quarter to new iPhones provides downside risk to the September quarter. However, while the iPhone 5 product cycle was weaker than expected, Apple has a number of product launches in 2H13 which we believe could return the company to growth over the next 12 months... We are focused on the product refresh that begins in late Q3 with an iPhone 5S and "lower-end iPhone". From a portfolio perspective we believe Apple may use this opportunity to simplify its portfolio by discontinuing the iPhone 4, 4S and 5 making the forward portfolio a choice between two devices." Outperform. $525.  

Join the Conversation
About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

Email | @philiped | RSS
Current Issue
  • Give the gift of Fortune
  • Get the Fortune app
  • Subscribe
Powered by WordPress.com VIP.