Apple 2.0

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Jefferies' $405 price target for Apple looks prescient

June 24, 2013: 10:45 AM ET

The average target for the analysts who cover Apple is closer to $550.

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Click to enlarge. Source: Bespoke Investment Group

FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) shares were trading at $413.50 when Jefferies' Peter Misek wrote the note to clients over the weekend that lowered his 12-month price target from $420 to $405.

Misek has come a long way from last December, when we reported that he'd raised his iPhone estimates but lowered his price target from $900 to $800.

He's turned into one of the most bearish of the 60 or 70 analysts who cover Apple. But by luck or prescience Misek seems to have a better sense of where the market is headed than the average Wall Street analyst, who according to Thomson/First Call has price target of $541 and by my spreadsheet is currently at $549.

Apple opened Monday at $407.40, down $6.10 (1.5%) from Friday's close.

At 11:23 a.m. it touched $398.05, its lowest price since April.

Misek has a Hold rating on the stock. The chart above, produced by the Bespoke Investment Group and posted on Seeking Alpha under the headline Analysts Slowly Sour on Apple, traces the percentage of analysts' Buy ratings over the past 13 years. It's hovering now at three out of four.

See also: Trailing indicators: Analysts' price targets vs. Apple's shares

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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