Apple 2.0

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Another bearish Apple note from Citi's Glen Yeung

June 7, 2013: 10:27 AM ET

But its supply chain sources suggest that an iWatch this year is "increasingly likely."

392307457022FORTUNE -- "While we had expected to hear optimism around Apple's forthcoming product refreshes in this round of checks, we were surprised at the skepticism at many points in the supply chain."

So begins the latest sour note to clients from Citi's Glen Yeung, who has been down on Apple (AAPL) since he took over last year for Richard Gardner, Citi's veteran Apple watcher. The one bright spot Yeung sees in Apple's future is a product that doesn't exist.

Most Apple suppliers, he writes, in analyst telegraphese...

"...expect negative revisions to Apple's 2H13 iPhone build forecast that, if realized, could result in flattish y/y unit growth (including low-cost iPhone). A modest delay in iPhone 5S production (underscoring our concerns about Apple's ability to execute) is contributing to this view. Meanwhile, a push-out of iPad Mini Retina leaves emphasis on the lower-priced Mini 2, pressuring ASPs and underscoring our concerns about Apple's GM. To be sure, the supply chain is ready for iWatch production, making it look increasingly likely for 2H13, although iTV remains elusive (we do not expect meaningful revenue contribution for iWatch in 2013). In light of our findings, we find it difficult to side with the bulls at this time and, despite valuation, we expect Apple to remain in a range around our $430 PT."

For what it's worth, when we scored the accuracy of analysts' forecasts last quarter, Yeung's Apple estimates put him in second-to-last place, 61 out of 62.

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for

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