Apple 2.0

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What Gene Munster heard Tim Cook say about an Apple TV set

May 29, 2013: 1:22 PM ET

Were we listening to the same AllThingsD interview?

Click to watch. Scroll to the 10 min. mark for TV.

Click to watch. Scroll to the 10 min. mark for the TV discussion.

FORTUNE -- "We felt that after viewing the conversation, it seems fairly certain that Apple will launch a television, a watch, and multiple iterations of the iPhone by the end of 2014 as well as a potential new service offering."

That's how Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster -- an Apple (AAPL) analyst who has been predicting the imminent arrival of an Apple television set since early 2009 -- began his report to clients about Tim Cook's appearance at AllThingsD Tuesday night.

He continues:

Reviewing The Impact Of Apple TV. We believe Tim Cook's comments at D11 pointed to Apple launching a television. While he did not talk about when the TV could come out, we continue to believe the announcement could happen at the end of this year. Assuming Apple can sell 10 million televisions (~10% connected TV market share) at a $1,500 retail price in its first year of sales (CY14), we believe the TV could add 7% to revenue while reducing gross margins by 1-2 percentage points. We believe that the television could carry around a 20% margin given Apple's typical premium to the market; however, we acknowledge that the television market typically carries 10% or below gross margins.

I listened to that portion of Cook's interview several times, trying to pick up the signals that Munster's antennae received. What I heard instead were two journalists pressing very hard for details about an unannounced product that Cook made quite clear he was not going to talk about.

You be the judge. Click the image above for the full video. The TV discussion starts at the 10:00 mark and lasts for less than 3 minutes.

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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