Apple 2.0

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Forecast of the day: iPhone and Galaxy June sales

May 22, 2013: 7:09 PM ET

Google Trends says Apple beats low expectations, Samsung momentum stays strong.

Screen Shot 2013-05-22 at 6.38.19 PM

Source: Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker. Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty unveiled a new crowdsourced forecasting tool Tuesday. As explained in an April whitepaper, the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker is based on an analysis of Google Trends, using different search terms for different regions and adjusting for seasonal trends.

The results of the first month's survey of the U.S., U.K., German, French, Japanese and Chinese markets are shown in the chart above.

As Huberty notes, 31 million iPhones is better than the Street's consensus (she's at 27 million units), but is consistent with what she's hearing from Apple's (AAPL) Asian suppliers.

AlphaWise's 45 million Galaxy forecast, according to Huberty, is roughly in line with expectations (46 million). "Samsung Galaxy searches grew Q/Q in most regions with the largest growth in China and U.S.," she writes. "Demand upside for lower priced Galaxy S3 likely offsets slightly weaker than expected demand for Galaxy S4, in our view."

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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