Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

What Gartner says privately about Apple's next 3 years

May 15, 2013: 11:43 AM ET

In a note to buy-side analysts, it suggests Apple will easily beat the Street's consensus.

Screen Shot 2013-05-15 at 11.13.52 AM

FORTUNE -- Not being a Gartner client or an analyst on the investment side, I've never been privy to the reports it sends its paying customers. But the spreadsheet above arrived in my inbox uninvited, and I figured I might as well share it with you.

It comes from Andrew Neff, an analyst with the research firm's Gartner Invest team which, according to his e-mail, "puts Gartner research into context for the institutional investor."

What's most striking about his spreadsheet is the gap between Gartner's extrapolations and the Street's expectations (taken from Capital IQ).

  • For 2013, for example, the Street is looking for revenue growth of 5.3%, while Neff has it growing 22.6%.
  • For 2015, the situation is reversed. The Street's expecting 22.9% growth and Gartner only 11.1%.

Take the 2016 estimate (8.3% revenue growth) with a grain of salt. I'm not sure anybody can see that far ahead into Apple's future.

See also: Is Apple's iPhone really 'dead in the water'?

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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