Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

When Apple's new iPhones are due

March 22, 2013: 10:38 AM ET

Three analysts so far this week think they know the answer.

Photo: iMore

Photo: iMore

FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) will launch the iPhone 5S in June or July or before September. The company will launch a lower-priced iPhone simultaneously or maybe after September.

Anyway, that's what these three analysts predict based on ... well, I'll let them tell you themselves. In their own words:

RBC's Amit Daryanani: "Our supply-chain checks indicate that... AAPL will launch the iPhone5s and a more affordable but lower-end iPhone at the same time, in either late CYQ2 or early Q3. The low-end iPhone will have the same 4" form factor as the iPhone5 but will have plastic casing and no retina display... The product may have lower GMs than iPhone5/5s but should be accretive to AAPL's corporate GMs of 38%. Hence, we estimate this could contribute $22B in revenues and $5.00+ in EPS in CY14E, which suggests the product could be worth $50+ to AAPL's stock price."

Cannacord's T. Michael Walkley: "Based on our handset market analysis and discussions with suppliers, we believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5S this summer or during Q3/C2013 versus our initial expectation for a launch in June. Further, with a host of impressive recently launched high-end Android smartphones expected to ramp in Q2/C2013, we believe Apple could lose smartphone market share during 1H/C2013 and have reduced our Q3/F2013 iPhone estimates... We also believe Apple will launch a more competitively priced mid-tier iPhone for pre-paid international markets and have adjusted our F2014 estimates and ASP assumptions."

Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: "Our checks in conjunction with our Asian team point to Apple not only refreshing the iPhone 5 mid-year but also a specifically targeted low-end iPhone. We believe in aggregate this a positive as it can sustain top and bottom line growth (giving upside to our FY13/14 EPS of $44.92/$54.03), deal with the competitive ecosystem and volume threat from Android/Samsung and continue to drive growth in Apple's installed base."

What do such predictions mean for Apple's customers and competitors? For that analysis, I recommend Rene Ritche's The "iPhone 5S" problem on iMore.

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for

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