Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Handicapping Apple's quarterly earnings and revenue: Q1 2013

January 15, 2013: 4:05 PM ET

If Apple is about to report its best ever quarter, why does the stock keep falling?

chart_ws_stock_appleinc_2013115145844_galleryv

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE (Hanoi) -- It's hard to reconcile the steep downward slope of the small chart above with the upward thrust of the two larger charts at right.

The first shows Apple's (AAPL) share price falling 27% since the close of the company's last fiscal quarter.

The second two charts show the consensus of the 67 analysts we polled -- 39 professionals and 28 independents -- that the company is about to report the best quarter of its 35 year history.

Just one caveat: We're doing something the charts at right don't -- and we expect many reporters next week will forget to do. We're adjusting last year's results to account for the fact that Q1 2012 included 14 weeks of sales and Q1 2013 only had 13.

Viewed this way, the consensus among the more bullish independent analysts -- earnings of $15.11 on sales of $58.84 billion -- represents year-over-year growth of 17% and 37%, respectively.

The consensus among the pros -- earnings of $13.45 on sales of $54.74 billion -- represents growth of 4% and 27%, respectively.

The median estimate among all 65 analysts is for earnings of $14.20 on sales of $55.96 billion, up 10% and 30%, respectively.

In fact, despite all the talk three months ago about Apple's growth turning negative, none of our analysts expect revenue to decline, and only the most pessimistic are forecasting a drop in Apple's adjusted earnings.

Below the fold: The individual estimates, with the pros in blue and the independents in green, sorted per reader request by the bottom line (i.e. earnings). NOTE: Updated Thursday from Halong Bay, Vietnam, with new data from Daniel (Deagol) Tello, Katy Huberty, Gene Munster, Charlie Wolf and Colin Gillis.

We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings about 30 minutes after the closing bell on Wednesday, Jan. 23.

q1 2013 smackdown final sorted

Join the Conversation
About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

Email | @philiped | RSS
Current Issue
  • Give the gift of Fortune
  • Get the Fortune app
  • Subscribe
Powered by WordPress.com VIP.