Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Have Apple's iPhone and iPad saturated the U.S. market?

December 17, 2012: 12:15 PM ET

A new Morgan Stanley survey suggests there is still room to grow

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Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE -- "Despite concerns to the contrary," writes Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty reporting the results of a proprietary survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers, "iPhone and iPad demand remain strong. C4Q US iPhone purchase intentions beat our forecast. Stable 50% iPad share also surprised us, despite our modeled drop next year."

Among the key findings:

  • Strong iPhone 5 demand. Survey suggested 33% growth year over year, and growing numbers of buyers favoring higher-priced models.
  • iPad Mini cannibalization concerns overblown. 47% of iPad mini purchases are to new customers, only slightly lower than the 56% for the larger iPads, suggesting manageable cannibalization risk.
  • Apple holding its own against Samsung. "Rising Samsung share is at the expense of other Android Smartphones and tablets as iPhone share of new purchases is also expected to rise (4 pts) over the next year."
  • Apple a clear winner during the 2012 holiday season. Tablets are the No. 1 gift idea in consumer electronics this year, edging out e-readers. Apple (AAPL) ranks highest among vendors at 38%, up from 34% last year.

Huberty's report is filled with charts that bear a close look, starting with Figure 1, below, which shows U.S. iPhone sales hitting new records despite continued market penetration and year-over-year growth numbers that have come back to earth.

Screen Shot 2012-12-17 at 11.58.43 AM

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for

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