Apple 2.0

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Shaw Wu raises iPhone 5 estimates, lowers iPad mini

December 12, 2012: 8:27 AM ET

Bottom line: Margins up, revenues down, earnings unchanged. The stock: who knows?

FORTUNE -- Citing supply chain sources, Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu fine-tuned his Apple (AAPL) estimates again Wednesday:

  • He raised his iPhone unit sales estimates for this quarter to 47.5 million (from 47.3 million) based on improving yields and availability. (The iPhone 5 launched in Korea last Friday and lands in 50-plus more countries this Friday.)
  • He lowered his iPad estimates to 23.5 million (from 25 million). "Pad mini demand remains strong," he wrote,"but shipments appear limited by supply constraints. On the other hand, build plans for iPad appear to have been reduced likely due to some cannibalization by iPad mini."
  • He lowered his fiscal Q1 2013 revenue estimate to $54.4 billion (from $54.6 billion), raised his gross margin estimate to 38.7% (from 38.5%) and left his EPS unchanged at $13.70.

As for the stock:

"We believe AAPL shares will likely continue to be volatile until year end due to non-fundamental factors including profit taking as AAPL as been an outstanding performer in 2012 where many are opting to lock in gains and fears of higher "fiscal cliff" tax rates next year. However, we believe as we enter 2013, investor sentiment will likely shift back to fundamentals. We are at the beginning of two big product cycles that will likely last 3-5 quarters and see margins poised to improve with greater scale and improving yields."

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for

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