Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Apple's growth predicted to slow to 10% in 2013. Seriously?

September 7, 2011: 9:07 AM ET

Piper Jaffray's estimate of 20% looks bullish by comparison. It looks crazy to us.

Click to enlarge. Source: Asymco

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray's longtime Apple (AAPL) analyst, issued his estimates for calendar 2013 on Wednesday. The highlights:

  • Revenues of $164 billion (8% higher than The Street)
  • Earnings of $40.50 per share (10% higher)
  • Revenue growth slowing from 82% the June 2011 quarter to 20% in 2013.
  • The consensus among investors he polled was that growth would slow even more dramatically in 2013, to 10%

Past performance is no guide, of course, but based on the chart above, you have to wonder what these investors are thinking.

Since the launch of the iPhone in 2007, Apple's revenues have never grown 10%. They came close, once, in fiscal Q3 2009, in advance of the launch of the iPhone 3GS. But even then they managed to grow 11%.

The average revenue growth over the past 5 years, is 61%. That's more like it.

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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