Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Apple portable computers set to dominate the rest of 2011

August 8, 2011: 7:09 AM ET

Especially if you throw in iPad sales, as yet another Wall Street analyst has done

Click to enlarge. Source: Deutsche Bank

If you look closely at the chart at right, taken from a note to clients issued Monday by Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore, you'll see that it has two entries for the second quarter of 2011.

Both show notebook computer sales as reported by the six largest vendors. The difference -- which Whitmore has highlighted with an orange circle -- is that the second includes iPad sales and the first doesn't.

Most analysts don't consider tablet computers real computers, but those that do have a very different perspective on Apple's (AAPL) place in the market. As Whitmore's chart shows, it's the difference between last place and first place among the six largest makers of portable computers.

The irony is that according to Whitmore, Apple is well positioned to gain on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Dell (DELL) and the rest of the Microsoft (MSFT) Windows manufacturers even without the iPad. He writes:

Within the computing market, we see significant opportunity for Apple to take meaningful share in the second half as the Microsoft / PC ecosystem is relatively stagnant, lacking meaningful new offerings. On the other hand, Apple will be competing with an upgraded Mac OS, new MacBook Airs (and other forthcoming Macs) and a new iPad iOS. Within the Tablet market, the iPad remains the Gold Standard as competitors struggle for mindshare and traction (note HP's price cuts on the TouchPad). Meanwhile, competing PC manufacturers have suggested Ultrabooks won't ramp in material volumes until 2012 due to challenges driving price points meaningfully below Apple's Air. As such, Apple appears particularly well positioned for more share gains heading into the back-to- school and holiday selling season.

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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