Apple 2.0

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Analysts: Apple set to report record Mac sales in Q3

July 14, 2011: 12:44 PM ET

Estimates range from 3.8 to 4.6 million. The consensus: 4.2 million, an all-time high

Source: Company reports, Apple 2.0

The Mac was hot seller last Christmas. But it was even hotter in the June quarter, according to most of the 43 analysts we polled in advance of our quarterly earnings smackdown.

Thirty of them are calling for Apple (AAPL) to set an all-time record for computers sold when it releases its earnings for fiscal Q3 next Tuesday.

Even the lowest estimate -- 3.8 million from UBS's Maynard Um -- represents a 12% increase year over year in an industry that grew less than 3%, according to both IDC and Gartner.

The highest estimate, 4.63 million from Gabelli's Hendi Susanto, represents a 33% increase.

And the average estimate, 4.21 million, translates to yearly growth of more than 20%.

Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's estimates were last quarter (the lower the better).

Analysts, affiliation Macs (millions) Date of est. Q2 rank
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co. 4.63 7/8/11 33
Navin Nagrani, Apple Finance Board 4.50 6/26/11 NA
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board 4.48 5/9/11 13
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights 4.43 7/7/11 14
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board 4.43 7/3/11 11
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide 4.41 6/25/11 6
Corey Forsberg, Apple Finance Board 4.40 7/2/11 NA
Horace Dediu, Asymco 4.40 6/26/11 5
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 4.40 7/5/11 37
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board 4.36 7/2/11 10
Brian White, Ticonderoga 4.35 7/12/11 39
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple's Gold 4.34 6/24/11 12
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 4.31 6/7/11 24
Shannon Cross, Cross Securities 4.30 7/13/11 NA
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square 4.30 7/11/11 46
Scott Sutherland, Wedbush 4.28 7/13/11 43
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross 4.27 6/22/11 2
Charlie Wolf, Needham 4.25 6/28/11 36
Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 4.25 6/28/11 41
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital 4.24 7/14/11 18
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 4.24 7/14/11 40
Daniel Tello, Deagol's AAPL Model 4.22 7/1/11 4
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co. 4.22 7/5/11 26
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board 4.20 6/24/11 8
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board 4.20 6/17/11 9
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood 4.18 6/24/11 16
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 4.17 6/26/11 34
James Cordwell, Atlantic Equities 4.17 7/6/11 NA
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 4.16 6/7/11 21
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan 4.14 6/28/11 20
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist 4.10 6/17/11 7
Richard Gardner, Citigroup 4.10 7/13/11 45
Peter Misek, Jeffries 4.10 7/7/11 27
Gurinder Kaira, Montrose Securities 4.10 7/14/11 NA
Robert Cihra, Caris 4.10 7/11/11 17
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity 4.00 7/5/11 35
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs 3.96 7/6/11 48
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 3.94 7/11/11 NA
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan 3.91 7/5/11 23
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co. 3.90 4/21/11 22
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee 3.90 7/6/11 29
Ralph Schackart, William Blair 3.89 6/7/11 44
Maynard Um, UBS 3.80 7/13/11 28
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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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