Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

Apple's 5.7% drop last week was par for the course

June 11, 2011: 12:40 PM ET

Average post WWDC loss: 5.4%. Average gain from the previous year: 56.8%

There was the usual gnashing of teeth on the Apple (AAPL) investor boards when the company's share price dropped $6.18 ($1.8%) Monday, the day of Steve Jobs' iCloud keynote.

Adding insult to injury, the stock continued to fall three out of the next four days. It closed Friday at $325.90, its lowest price since Dec. 2010, down 5.7% for the week.

But the teeth gnashers shouldn't have been surprised. Apple's shares have fallen the week of the company's annual Worldwide Developers Conference every year since 2003. They fell 6.7% in 2008, the year Jobs looked so thin, and 9.1% in 2004, the year Apple previewed but did not release OS X 10.4 (Tiger). Average post WWDC loss: 5.4%.

Past performance is no guarantee, of course, but investors who sit tight may yet have the last laugh. The average gain in Apple's share price from the close of one WWDC to the start of the next WWDC over the past eight years is 56.8%.

To put it another way, a share of Apple purchased before Steve Jobs' 2003 keynote cost $19.30. Even after last week's losses, it has grown in value 1,589%.

See chart below the fold.

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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