Apple 2.0

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2 new iPad estimates: 5.4 & 9.8 million

April 15, 2011: 11:56 AM ET

As analysts rejigger their numbers ahead of Q2 earnings, someone's not counting straight

iPad 2

We got two last-minute reports from analysts Friday, just a few trading days before Apple (AAPL) is schedule to report its earnings for its second fiscal quarter of 2011.

One of the analysts, J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz, lowered his iPad unit sales number for the quarter to 5.4 million from 6.0 million, citing stock outs, stall outs and persistent 2-3 week shipping delays for the new iPad 2. In the same note -- his second Apple report this week -- he raised his Q2 iPhone estimate from 16.6 million to 18.4 million -- one of the highest estimates on Wall Street.

Meanwhile, Societe General's Andy Perkins, whom we hadn't heard from since January, offered two very different numbers. He's predicting that Apple will report that it sold only 14.7 million iPhones last quarter and a whopping 9.8 million iPads -- the highest iPad estimate we've seen anywhere.

Needless to say, they can't both be right.

Apple shares moved lower in early trading Friday, as if the market was buying Perkin's iPhone number and Moskowitz' iPad estimate, rather than the other way around.

Also on Fortune.com:

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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