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ChangeWave Research: iPad 2 demand 40% higher than iPad 1

April 12, 2011: 8:43 AM ET

A new survey suggests that Apple sold 7 million iPads in Q2, including 2-3 million iPad 2s

Source: RBC and ChangeWave Research

RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky joined the 7 million club Tuesday.

That's the small but growing group of analysts who believe Apple (AAPL) sold 7 million or more iPads in its second fiscal quarter, which ran from December 26 to March 26.

Two other Wall Street analysts, Jeffries' Peter Misek and Caris' Robert Chira, came up with the same 7 million number, and one, Gabelli's Hendi Susanto, is looking for Apple to sell 8.8 million iPads.

There are three amateur analysts in the 7 million club, but none is as bullish as Susanto. And nobody is quite as bearish as Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi and Ticonderoga's Brian White, with matching estimates of 5.132 million.

Abramsky's number includes a rough break-down by model: 4-5 million iPad 1s and 2-3 million iPad 2s. It's based on a proprietary survey of 2,000 potential customers conducted from March 14-23 by ChangeWave Research. In that survey, 28% of respondents said they planned to buy an iPad 2, 40% higher than a similar survey of potential buyers of the original iPad in May 2010. (See chart.)

Below: An updated list of iPad estimates from our poll of 45 analysts, professional and amateur. We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2011 earnings on April 20.

Analyst, affiliation iPad unit sales (millions) Date of est.
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co. 8.80 3/25/11
Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board 8.00 3/30/11
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood 7.75 3/27/11
Horace Dediu, Asymco 7.30 3/27/11
Daniel Tello, Deagol's AAPL Model 7.11 3/21/11
Robert Cihra, Caris 7.00 3/25/11
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital 7.00 4/12/11
Peter Misek, Jeffries 7.00 3/30/11
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co. 6.96 1/19/11
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple's Gold 6.95 3/26/11
Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board 6.90 3/27/11
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board 6.80 3/25/11
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross 6.80 3/31/11
William Fearnley, Janney Capital 6.80 1/19/11
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide 6.75 3/30/11
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board 6.70 3/27/11
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee 6.70 3/30/11
William Power, Baird 6.70 1/19/11
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board 6.50 3/29/11
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 6.50 3/25/11
Charlie Wolf, Needham 6.50 3/29/11
Andy Hargreaves, Pacific Crest 6.23 3/30/11
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs 6.15 3/25/11
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 6.10 3/18/11
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan 6.05 3/25/11
Maynard Um, UBS 6.00 3/28/11
Steven Fox, CLSA 6.00 3/29/11
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity 6.00 3/28/11
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square 6.00 1/19/11
Richard Gardner, Citigroup 6.00 3/25/11
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board 5.90 3/22/11
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board 5.88 3/29/11
Scott Sutherland, Wedbush 5.87 3/3/11
Ralph Schackart, William Blair 5.83 1/19/11
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist 5.50 3/23/11
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan 5.50 3/25/11
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 5.50 3/2/11
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 5.50 4/5/11
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 5.50 3/25/11
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 5.50 3/25/11
Scott Craig, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch 5.33 3/21/11
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co. 5.30 3/3/11
Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity 5.16 3/25/11
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research 5.13 3/2/11
Brian White, Ticonderoga 5.13 3/28/11

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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