First day sales: 1.5 million iPhone 4s?


Philip Elmer-DeWitt is a senior editor at Fortune.

According to one analyst, Apple has blown past all previous launch-day records

"Guessing launch day iPhone sales," writes Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner in a note to clients issued Friday, 'has become something of a national sport, a bit like guessing whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow."

But that doesn't stop him from playing the game. Reiner's guess: 1.5 million, one and a half as many iPhones as Apple (aapl) sold in three days in 2009 and 2008.

Here's his math:

  • 600,000 pre-ordered in the U.S.
  • plus 100,000 non- reserved units sold day of at Apple stores (average 500 per store)
  • plus 50,000 sold into Best Buy (~45 per store, according to our checks).
  • Then multiply by two for international.

We'll see.

Like Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster (see here), Reiner surveyed hundreds of buyers Thursday (714 vs. Munster's 608) and got similar results:
<!-- more -->

  • 76% upgrades, on average after 14.7 months;
  • 14% planned to buy an iPad in the next three months;
  • 21% were new to AT&T (t), 41% of those coming from T-Mobile (dt) and 28% from Verizon (vz).

See also:

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

All products and services featured are based solely on editorial selection. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website.

Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Interactive Data. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions