Apple 2.0

Covering the business that Steve Jobs built

How big was Apple's second quarter?

April 17, 2010: 8:26 AM ET

The fourth in a series of previews of Apple's results for fiscal Q2 2010

Source: Company reports; Thomson Financial consensus est.

Over the past week we've sampled analysts' expectation for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, Mac and iPod sales over the fiscal quarter that ended March 27.

Today we look at the bottom line -- revenue and earnings per share -- for what should be the company's best second quarter ever, especially given how depressed the computer market was in the winter of 2009.

This exercise is simpler than in past quarters because Apple revised its accounting procedures in January to report most of its iPhone revenue as it is received, rather than spreading it out over 24 months. That effectively closed the distance between the GAAP and non-GAAP numbers that had caused so many analysts to underestimate Apple's real performance over the past couple years. (See The day Apple released its iPhone revenue bomb.)

The Street's consensus, as recorded by Thomson Financial, has Apple's revenue and earnings up year over year 32.4% and 35.75%, respectively .

The most bullish estimate, submitted by Financial Alchemist's Turley Muller, an independent with a enviable track record, has revenue up 41.7% and earnings up nearly 57% over the same period. (Even the most bearish, from Think Equity's Vijay Rakesh, has them up 23.3% and 7.8%, respectively.) See below.

Analyst, affiliation Revenue (billions) EPS Date of est.
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist 12.87 2.81 4/12/10
Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board 12.81 2.80 4/12/10
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research 12.60 2.59 4/14/10
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital 12.60 2.53 4/16/10
Daniel Tello, Deagol's AAPL Model 12.59 2.77 4/12/10
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board 12.52 2.77 4/12/10
Ashok Kumar, Rodman & Renshaw 12.50 2.65 4/13/10
Ben Reitzes, Barclay's Capital 12.43 2.48 4/8/10
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 12.41 2.54 4/15/10
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 12.38 2.50 4/5/10
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan 12.32 2.53 4/12/10
Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board 12.30 2.60 4/12/10
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna Financial 12.28 2.54 4/8/10
Bill Shope, Credit Suisse 12.26 2.57 4/8/10
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 12.20 2.55 3/5/10
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 12.15 2.45 4/14/10
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 12.04 2.40 4/12/10
Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 12.00 2.42 4/9/10
Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 11.83 2.41 4/11/10
Samuel Wilson, JMP Securities 11.80 2.38 4/9/10
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 11.77 2.39 3/25/10
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 11.76 2.39 4/12/10
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights 11.70 2.28 1/21/10
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan 11.67 2.36 4/5/10
Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 11.57 2.31 4/9/10
Richard Gardner, Citigroup 11.40 2.39 4/12/10
Vijay Rakesh, Think Equity 11.20 1.93 4/9/10

. . .

We'll find out whose numbers were closest to the mark next week when Apple reports its Q2 results. Tune in here after the markets close on Tuesday April 20 for our report on Apple's earnings and coverage of its conference call with analysts, which begins at 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT).

See also:

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

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About This Author
Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Editor, Apple 2.0, Fortune

Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been following Apple since 1982, first for Time Magazine, and now on the Web for Fortune.com.

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