How many iPads will Apple sell?
January 28, 2010: 9:00 AM ETThe Street looked at that $499 price point and hastily revised its numbers
Steve Jobs with his iPad. Photo: Michael Copeland
"It finally gives the right form," writes Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner in what is so far the most lyrical analyst note on Apple's new iPad, "to leisurely functions long trapped, like the Frog Prince, in the body of a late-20th century office productivity tool."
Yet after all that and more ("Copycat devices will pullulate in iPad's wake"), Reiner's estimates of iPad sales are among the lowest -- a mere 1.1 million in fiscal 2010. Others were not so conservative. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has Apple (AAPL) selling 9 million iPads in calendar 2011 at an average sales price of $660, adding $5.9 billion to its bottom line. That's within striking distance of her estimate for the entire iPod line ($6.8 billion).
Below: Our analysts' spreadsheet. We'll update it as more estimates come in.
| Unit sales 2010 (millions) | Unit sales 2011 (millions) | Year (C or F) | |
| Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech | 7.0 | 13.0 | Calendar |
| David Bailey, Goldman Sachs | 6.2 | 10.1 | Calendar |
| Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley | 6.0 | 9.0 | Calendar |
| Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. | 5.0 | 10.0 | 12 mos. |
| Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray | 3.5 | 8.0 | Calendar |
| Ben Reitzes, Barclay's Capital | 2.9 | 7.3 | Fiscal |
| Keith Bachman, BMO Capital | 2.5 | 5.5 | Fiscal |
| Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna | 2.1 | 3.8 | Calendar |
| Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank | 2.0 | 4.0 | Calendar |
| Bill Shope, Credit Suisse | 1.8 | 7.4 | Fiscal |
| Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch | 1.2 | 3.7 | Fiscal |
| Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams | 1.2 | 3.5 | Fiscal |
| Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel | 1.1 | 6.8 | Fiscal |
| Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer | 1.1 | 4.0 | Fiscal |
. . .
(Note that the sales estimates are difficult to compare because they are measured over different time periods. Wu, for example, is using 12 months dating from when the first units ship.)
At least six analysts -- Reitzes, Munster, Reiner, Fidacaro, Craig and Bailey -- have raised their AAPL targets since the unveiling (to $285, $284, $265, $260, $250 and $240, respectively).
Shares closed Wednesday at $207.88, up 1.03 points (0.5%) for the day. They were down sharply in early trading Thursday.
See also:
- Video: Steve Jobs presents Apple's iPad
- Apple's iPad: Is it a game changer?
- Live Blog: Steve Jobs presents the Apple tablet.
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]
